Assessing the Damage: Comparing Losing Streaks of the Gary Kubiak Era
1. SEASON ONE, Weeks 1-3
9/10/06 vs Philadelphia, 24-10 (+6)
9/17/06 @ Indianapolis, 43-24 (+11.5)
9/24/06 vs Washington, 31-15 (+3.5)
Avg Betting spread: +7.00
Avg Margin loss: 16.33
Avg Margin from spread: 9.33
Streak Signature: The first three games of the Kubiak Era and of his head coaching career, so no real depressing signature yet. Dude was picking up the pieces of the Dom Capers Era and had David Carr as his quarterback, so this one is kind of understandable. Little did we know at that time that Kubiak would be showing us the equivalent of his WWE finishing move -- The Multigame Losing Streak.
(By the way, if Kubiak were an actual WWE wrestler and the Multigame Losing Streak were an actual maneuver, it would consist of Kubiak continually missing multiple Hogan style leg drops and after each one getting up and saying "That's on me.")
2. SEASON TWO, Weeks 6-8
10/14/07 @ Jacksonville, 37-17 (+6.5)
10/21/07 vs Tennessee, 38-36 (-2)
10/28/07 @ San Diego, 35-10 (+10)
Avg Spread: +4.83
Avg Margin loss: 15.67
Avg Margin from spread: 10.83
Streak Signature: Matt Schaub's first season and, appropriately, the biggest spark came from Sage Rosenfels, who rallied the Texans from a 32-7 third quarter deficit to take a 36-35 lead on Tennessee, before Rod Bironas eighth field goal of the game gave Tennessee the win.
3. SEASON THREE, Weeks 1-5 (Bye, Week 2)
9/7/08 @ Pittsburgh, 38-17 (+6.5)
9/21/08 @ Tennessee, 31-12 (+4.5)
9/28/08 @ Jacksonville, 30-27 (+6.5)
10/5/08 vs Indianapolis, 31-27 (+3)
Avg Spread: +5.13
Avg Margin loss: 11.75
Avg Margin from spread: 6.63
Streak Signature: Two things -- first, this was the season where Hurricane Ike hit before the second game of the year (and what would have been the first home game), so the Texans bye week got moved to Week Two, which meant they basically had no bye week. And it also meant their first three games were on the road. Second, as if that wasn't bad enough, the first home game was the Rosencopter game against the Colts, which dropped the Texans to 0-4 and functionally ended the season by early October. This streak easily included the most carnage, real life and football, of any of the streaks.
4. SEASON THREE, Weeks 9-11
11/2/08 @ Minnesota, 28-21 (+6.5)
11/9/08 vs Baltimore, 41-13 (-2.5)
11/16/08 @ Indianapolis, 33-27 (+9)
Avg Spread: +4.33
Avg Margin loss: 13.67
Avg Margin from spread: 9.33
Streak Signature: Another Matt Schaub injury, this time in the Minnesota game, which led to more Sage Rosenfels, which meant more Sage Rosenfels turnovers, including a horrifying four interception game against the Ravens.
5. SEASON FOUR, Weeks 9-13 (Bye, Week 10)
11/8/09 @ Indianapolis, 20-17 (+7.5)
11/23/09 vs Tennessee, 20-17 (-4)
11/28/09 vs Indianapolis, 35-27 (+3)
12/6/09 @ Jacksonville, 23-18 (-1)
Avg Spread: +1.38
Avg Margin loss: 4.75
Avg Margin from spread: 3.38
Streak Signature: Two Kris Brown end of game misses in back to back games took a 5-3 start and made it a 5-5 buzzkill, which carried over the next two games. Four straight games, all in the division, all division losses. I'm not sure if that had ever been done before. This streak also is notable because it includes the Chris Brown (the other one, the running back) throwing a pick on a halfback option play against the Jags, which would be the last trick play Gary Kubiak would ever run on offense.
6. SEASON FIVE, Weeks 8-11
11/1/10 @Indianapolis, 30-17 (+5.5)
11/7/10 vs San Diego, 29-23 (+3)
11/14/10 @ Jacksonville, 31-24 (+1)
11/21/10 @ New York Jets, 30-27 (+6.5)
Avg Spread: +4.00
Avg Margin loss: 7.25
Avg Margin from spread: 3.25
Streak Signature: This was the season that the Texans somehow got off to a 4-2 start despite playing the worst defense in modern history. It came back to roost in a big way during this streak, which included a Schaub Pick 6 against Indy (Schaub's WWE finisher, by the way), the Glover Quin Hail Mary in Jacksonville, and a Mark Snachez last minute comeback in New York. Terrible. Competitive, but terrible.
7. SEASON FIVE, Weeks 13-16
12/2/10 @ Philadelphia, 34-24 (+8.5)
12/13/10 vs Baltimore, 34-28 (+3)
12/19/10 @ Tennessee, 31-17 (+2)
12/26/10 @ Denver, 24-23 (-2)
Avg Spread: +2.88
Avg Margin loss: 7.75
Avg Margin from spread: 4.88
Streak Signature: The overtime game against the Ravens on Monday night was bad, but I would say the Tennessee game during this streak was the only time I can say that a Gary Kubiak coached team quit on their head coach.
8. SEASON SIX, WEEKS 15-17
12/18/11 vs Carolina, 28-13 (-4.5)
12/22/11 @ Indianapolis, 19-16 (-7)
1/1/12 vs Tennessee, 23-22 (+1)
Avg Spread: -3.5
Avg Margin loss: 6.33
Avg Margin from spread: 9.83
Streak Signature: Still blinded by the euphoria of the first division title in team history clinched on December 11, and with expectations totally tempered by third string rookie T.J. Yates' starting at quarterback, nobody really cared about this losing streak. In fact, the third loss included three quarters of Jake Delhomme. This one barely counts on Kubiak' record. In fact, I think it gets expunged from his permanent record, like a speeding ticket, sometime later this season.
9. SEASON EIGHT, WEEKS 3-7
9/22/13 @ Baltimore, 30-9 (+1)
9/29/13 vs Seattle, 23-20 (+1)
10/6/13 @ San Francisco, 34-3 (+4)
10/13/13 vs St. Louis, 38-13 (-9.5)
10/20/13 @ Kansas City, 17-16 (+7)
Avg Spread: +0.70
Avg Margin loss: 16.20
Avg Margin from spread: 15.50
Streak Signature: Pick sixes galore, at least one season ending injury each of the last three weeks, but most of all, as you can see, this is not only the longest losing streak of Kubiak's tenure, but the team is falling short of Vegas expectations by over two touchdowns a game, by far the worst margin of the Kubiak Era and easily the worst since his first two seasons on the job.
Avg Spread: +2.97
Avg Margin loss: 11.08
Avg Margin from spread: 8.11
Overall Record ATS in Above Games: 5-27-1
In closing, I'll let Don Banks do the heavy lifting one more time:
But when the sky starts falling, that's exactly when a coach is expected to find solutions and execute some season-saving maneuvers that help his team find its way out of its funk. The best ones figure out how to get the losing streak stopped, and start piecing the puzzle back together as quickly as possible.
Indeed, that is what the best ones do. The best head coaches find a way to stop the bleeding. Gary Kubiak isn't one of those coaches. We have a word for the kind of coach that Kubiak is:
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