Assessing the Damage: Comparing Losing Streaks of the Gary Kubiak Era
Amen, brother. Oh wait...there's more? Well, let's hear it, Donnie Boy:
"In every season except 2012's franchise-best 12-4 finish, the Texans have endured at least one losing streak of three-plus games under Kubiak, and even that season feels a little hollow since Houston started 11-1, before dropping three of its final four games to squander a potential No. 1 seed and the AFC's homefield advantage in the playoffs. (Come to think of it, nothing really good has transpired for the Texans since they debuted those snazzy letterman jackets on the road trip to New England last December, losing 42-14 that night. Houston is 4-8 overall since said high-schoolish fashion statement.)"
Man. PREACH, Brother Don....no really, continue to preach. Let's hear more:
"You can almost see the grasping search for answers in Kubiak's and Schaub's bad body language in recent weeks. During the postgame they look particularly lost, as if they don't know exactly what has gone wrong, how to correct it, and if they're going to be able to weather the storm until they do."
Yep, BINGO. Depressing, but BINGO.
Kubiak has nothing.
If you were in the hospital getting ready for emergency surgery and Kubiak walked in and introduced himself as your doctor, with the body language he has right now, you'd ask to see your family so you could say good bye to them. It's just a fact.
And one very frustrating thing about this recent skid -- you could actually argue that Kubiak's stumbled into a potential answer to spark the team in Case Keenum (completely stumbled into it, because you know if he were healthy, Matt Schaub would have started in Kansas City last weekend), and even that he's finding a way to botch by saying Matt Schaub is "obviously still the starter," so Schaub's feelings aren't hurt.
Because Matt Schaub's feelings are important.
Like I said, Gary Kubiak is a nice man. Unfortunately, the Texans are in need of an asshole right about now.
Back to the larger point about Gary Kubiak's inability to perform triage on his team when the season, this one and previous ones, is sinking like a stone in the lake -- you could make an argument that the most damning thing for Kubiak eight seasons in, is that not only does he have his team mired in its longest losing streak of his tenure, but this is the least competitive they've been during a losing streak during his coaching tenure.
Think about that -- Gary Kubiak's most talented Texans unit is the least competitive of his head coaching career.
Don't believe me? Well, I told you I was about to get all statistical up in this beeyotch, so here we go -- below you will find the summary of each of the nine Texans losing streaks of three games or more during the Gary Kubiak Era. Included are the following:
* Date of game, opponent, and final score with the betting line in parentheses (The betting line will be an important element of my argument, you'll see.)
* The average betting spread of each game during the streak, so essentially Vegas' expectation on a final margin of loss
* The average final margin of loss of each game during the streak, so essentially how much the Texans actually lost by
* The average gap between the final margin in the game and the spread, so essentially in losing, how far off were the Texans from the expected margin of loss. In layman's terms, how badly did they fall short of expectations.
I've also included, for posterity's sake, a "streak signature" for each losing streak just to jog your memory a little bit and make the data below more than just a bunch of depressing numbers crashing into each other.
So let's do this thing here, shall we?