Weather Week: Rain, MNF Weather and a Note About Forecasting for a Big City

Categories: Weather

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Yes, enough said.
The weekend brought us widespread rain blowing in off the Gulf of Mexico, though surprisingly, some parts of the city got very little of the wet stuff. In fact, some parts of the region got over an inch while others didn't even record a trace. It is one of the reasons forecasting is such tricky business in a city the physical size of Houston, but more on that in a moment.

The early part of this week should be much like the weekend. Monday and Tuesday will reach the low to mid 90s with scattered showers and thunderstorms, very typical for Houston this time of year. Most of the rainfall won't create much accumulation and will fall predominantly in the late afternoons. The moisture in the air will keep the humidity high, unfortunately. Rain chances will taper by mid week as high pressure asserts itself, but we could see more rain by next weekend.

Now, back to the forecasting thing. Often forecasters are criticized for their lack of accuracy when, in fact, they are remarkably accurate. A 10 percent chance of rain means very little in a city the size of Houston. Someone out in Katy might get a pop-up shower and there's your 10 percent. The atmosphere near the Gulf coast is remarkably volatile this time of year, but it's a safe bet there will be rain chances nearly every day. If your neighborhood didn't get any rain, it doesn't mean the forecast was wrong for the entire city. I have a lot of respect for meteorologists, so this is something to keep in mind when you hear the rain chances on a given day.

Monday Night Football Weather

The weather should be just about perfect for the Texans tonight in San Diego with clear skies and a temperature around 69 degrees.


Eye on the Tropics

We have yet another tropical storm out in the Atlantic and this one has a pretty good shot at becoming the season's first hurricane. Fortunately, Tropical Storm Humberto is way out in the Atlantic Ocean and very little threat to any land mass, certainly not the U.S. With little in the way of tropical development on the horizon and reaching the peak of the season in just a few days, this hurricane season has been a dud for producing hurricanes.


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1 comments
Motherscratcher
Motherscratcher

My understanding of weather forecasting is that when they give a percentage chance of anything, it means that under the expected conditions, the weather in question has occured in the past roughly this percentage of the time. So, a 10% chance of rain would not mean that 10% of the forecast area should expect rain. It means that, in this scenario, rain has occurred 10% of the time in which these conditions were in effect. The forecast is not predicting how much of an area on any particular day is going to be rained upon.

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