Weekend Weather: A Chance of Rain and the Tropics Heat Up
I hope you have had a nice week. It's been damn hot out there meaning your a/c bills are probably going to be through the roof, but on the positive side, you're probably sweating off that water weight. The heat will most definitely continue into the weekend. This is summer in Houston after all. But, we might see a small break from the sweltering temperatures in the form of rain on Saturday.
Temperatures Friday will reach the mid to upper 90s, but a weak disturbance forecasters originally thought would not make it to southeast Texas now appears to have a chance of getting here, which would lower the temps a few degrees and bring an increased chance of rain Saturday. Right now, the forecast is calling for 30-40 percent. Most of the storms would be of the isolated variety, but there's a chance of widespread rain throughout the day -- not the worst thing the last weekend in July.
If the disturbance doesn't quite get here and high pressure continues to assert itself, expect more upper 90s and hot, humid weather, but keep your fingers crossed.
As of writing this, Tropical Storm Dorian remained in about the same shape as it had been. The forecast track has not changed markedly either taking the storm on a path west-northwest over the next five days. At that point, it is like Dorian will begin to make a turn to the northwest or even north as it approaches the Bahamas. How it interacts with a trough forecast to move off the east coast is questionable. It could help to re-curve Dorian out to sea or it might be enough and the eastern U.S. coastline could be at risk.
As for strength, a mass of relatively stable air is in front of Dorian with sea surface temperatures warm enough to help it maintain its intensity, but not necessarily enough to allow for intensification. the National Hurricane Center is predicting it will remain a tropical storm over the next five days as about half the computer models predict it will grow into a category 1 hurricane and the other half forecast it dissipating altogether.
Because Dorian is such a small storm, it is more susceptible to atmospheric changes than larger storms. It also can grow and shrink fairly rapidly, so it wouldn't be a surprise if it swelled to hurricane strength or if it just disappeared. We'll have to watch and see. For now, it appears unlikely Dorian will impact the Gulf of Mexico, but it's always good to keep a watchful eye on the tropics this time of year.