Some Texan-Flavored Prop-Bet Appetizers Before The First NFL Sunday
We are about 72 hours away from the first Sunday of the NFL season, a season that is undoubtedly the most highly anticipated in the history of the Texans since their inaugural campaign in 2002.
Photo by Marco Torres Will Matt Schaub throw for 25 TDs this year?
This means we are also 24 hours away from my first "Weekend's Best Bets" posts, which is basically my weekly permission slip for you to steal money from your bookie. (70-53-1 last season, if you're keeping track at home. My records for the two previous seasons that I was with the Houston Press are blurry and unable to be deciphered, but, um, I'm sure that I kicked ass.)
Just like players need to stretch out on the field a couple hours before kickoff, so too do degenerate gamblers need to stretch their wagering hamstrings on a few delicious proposition bets a couple days before the season starts.
So please, Houston, join me in some wagering calisthenics!
By the way, all lines are provided by Bovada.lv, courtesy of my colleague Jimmy Shapiro:
MATT SCHAUB PROP BETS
Matt Schaub -- Total Passing Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
Matt Schaub -- Total Passing Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 24 and a half
Matt Schaub -- Total Interceptions thrown in the 2012 Regular Season
SP: The total-yardage bet would have felt clownishly easy at this time last year, with Schaub coming off back-to-back seasons of well over 4,000 yards (combined 9,140 yards in 2009 and 2010), but with a) the Texans' newfound identity of a blue collar, defense/running game recipe and b) the decent chance that Schaub gets hurt (2009 and 2010 were his only healthy seasons), the UNDER on the total passing yardage is a slight lean.
Also, the UNDER on touchdown passes is a strong lean as the only season Schaub eclipsed 24 was in 2009 when the team had no running game until Arian Foster was promoted from the practice squad in December, and they therefore spent the whole season throwing the ball all over the yard. The interception total is a slight UNDER lean, too.
ARIAN FOSTER PROP BETS
Arian Foster -- Total Rushing Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 1,300 and a half
Arian Foster -- Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
Arian Foster -- Total Rushing & Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 13 and a half
SP: It's worth prefacing with any of these player bets, that it's as much a bet on a guy's health as it is your optimism/pessimism in the type of season he will wind up having. Arian Foster rushed for 1,224 yards last season and that was after missing 3.5 games with an early season hamstring injury and some Week 17 rest.
In short, if healthy, I think Foster blows past the rushing yardage and touchdown totals, so we go strongly on the OVER for both of those. If Foster doesn't go over both totals, people will probably blame veganism, which I am personally trying to stamp out, so if nothing else, the OVER plays are a decent hedge against my vegan-extinction efforts.