This Weekend's Best Bets: One Last Stab at Christmas Spending Money
CHIEFS -6 1/2 over Colts
On the surface, since a pre-bye week victory over the Denver Broncos on a Sunday night, the Colts are a respectable 4-3. The fact that the AFC South is such a cesspool of football suck makes their 4-3 during that time look downright dominant. The fact is, though, the Colts are actually 0-3 against teams not named the Titans or Texans during that seven game stretch and have lost those three games by an average margin of 24 points. The Chiefs are still in the hunt for the number one overall seed, and I expect their effort to reflect that.
Patriots +2 1/2 over RAVENS
The Patriots are 16-2 ATS as an underdog following a loss. Also, the Patriots are 17-3 ATS as an underdog for the second straight game. Basically, what that says is that Bill Belichick hates being disrespected, but he really hates being disrespected twice in a row. Also, a loss here puts New England's hopes for a first round bye in jeopardy, and I don't see them slogging through Week 17 with nothing to play for.
Raiders +10 over CHARGERS
Hey, did you know that the Chargers are only the third team in the last 20 seasons to be favored by double digits the week after being double digit underdogs? Yep, they went from an 11 point underdog in Denver last week to a 10 point favorite against Oakland. Also, did you know that the Raiders are 18-5 ATS as a road dog in division games? Indeed, they are. The underdog has covered in 9 of the last 10 games between these to teams. In short, this is as close to a throw out the records division series as you can find right now. The Raiders with Matt McGloin as their quarterback can score enough to hang in this game. (Sweet fancy Moses, read that last sentence again. McGloin!)
Bears +3 over EAGLES
Admittedly, there's probably a tiny bit of my hoping that the Bears and Packers both win this week to set up a de facto playoff game in Week 17 between those two teams. That would be bad ass. There are empirical reasons to take the Bears, too. The Eagles are 3-18 ATS when favored for a second straight week, and at home have covered only 5 of their last 26. The best reason to pick against the Bears, on the other hand, is that ,at night in a big TV game, I can totally envision Jay Cutler getting "Sour Jay Cutler Face" by about the middle of the second quarter. I'll go with the gambling stats in this one.
Last week: 3-3
Season record: 38-55-3
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