Ted Cruz Has Been Spending a Lot of Time in Iowa: Can He Win the Iowa Caucus?

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Billwhittaker
Ted's Vacation Home is Here
Ted Cruz wants to be President of these United States. While this is unlikely -- the party elites dislike him, view him as an electoral disaster waiting to happen and he would never emerge from the "invisible primary" as the GOP elites' choice -- Cruz dares to dream. Thus, he has been spending an inordinate amount of time in Iowa, known for its social conservatism on the GOP side of the fence. (I wonder how you feel about him spending his time in the Senate as a platform for his presidential aspirations rather than focusing on governing -- but it's not like Texas is going to go blue -- or even purple -- anytime real soon).

First, it is interesting to note that Cruz is taking the exact opposite approach that took Obama to the White House: once elected to the Senate, Obama turned down almost every national interview request and tried to take on the appearance of a serious legislator (at least initially). Cruz, on the other hand, has been the proverbial political show horse, the moth to the media's flame.

Looking to capitalize on his media fame, as of late October, Cruz had been to Iowa three times in three months. One reporter thinks Cruz is simply introducing himself to a state where people don't know him (he's a "curiosity"); another reports that he may already be wearing out his welcome.

But right now, Cruz and Rand Paul are the "buzziest" candidates in Iowa. This is no surprise, they are probably closest ideologically to the last two winners of the Iowa Republican Caucus: Rick Santorum (2012) and Mike Huckabee (2008). I'm specifically excluding Rick Perry since he will simply not be able to raise adequate campaign funds in the invisible primary -- Perry's not a show horse so much as an equine who needs to humanely euthanized.

It's unlikely Cruz is wearing out his welcome, and more likely that he is building a foundation for January 2016. We know that only the most politically dialed-in voters are paying attention right now, and we know that Cruz is not the only GOP pol spending time in Iowa. Making a "prediction" two years out is a fool's errand, but Cruz is certainly a front-runner to win the Iowa caucus -- he won't sniff the Oval Office though.

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8 comments
ravensford
ravensford

Ted Cruz has been referred to as libertarian because he is open to military cuts but he is more of a social conservative than libertarian. His leadership of the government shutdown failed and won't be repeated. He is already an irrelevancy to the future of the GOP although talking heads don't yet realize that.


ravensford
ravensford

Every time an inaccurate pronouncement is made about who won the Iowa Republican caucus in 2012, it needs challenged. This happens any time someone inaccurately asserts that somebody won something on caucus night in Iowa. There was a straw poll at the GOP caucus sites, about as meaningless as the Ames straw poll months earlier. As best as can be tabulated (there are still a few precincts that are missing in the count), Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney by a razor thin margin and it was actually close to being a three-way tie. On caucus night the delegates to county conventions were selected, a process that would eventually result in a majority of Iowa's delegates to the national convention being Ron Paul supporters. Paul won the Iowa delegate selection process. Up until the June iowa GOP convention, AP was projecting a delegate count from Iowa as 13 for Romney, 13 for Santorum, 1 for Paul and 1 unallocated. This didn't even make sense based on the caucus night straw poll results. To suggest that Paul or his son, Rand Paul, are close ideologically to social conservatives like Santorum is absurd. Rand Paul is a right to lifer and has been pandering to social conservatives but on drug policy, military policy and civil liberty issues, Santorum and either of the Paul's are polar opposites.

h_e_x
h_e_x

He won't win because the Republican Party base is shrinking. Instead of trying to reach out to people in a meaningful way, they double down in an attempt to secure their dwindling base. 

The fact that his father fought for Castro should be enough to make sure he doesn't make it past the primaries.

jjhlh1
jjhlh1

Senator Cruz will win in 2016 because he is the best candidate from either party. And it will be an anti-establishment message that will resonate with the electorate, especially after they experience the harmful effects of Obamacare for 3 years. Our current situation reminds me very much of the late 1970's which allowed the Reagan victories, which turned America around for a generation. Obama fatigue is already setting in 3 years out from the election, and it will only get worse.

wcvemail
wcvemail

@jjhlh1 Go ahead and call him simply "Cruz." It's OK. The rest of us do, and he doesn't even notice that you're deferring, err, showing respect.

That said, Cruz, is a clinically diagnosable attention whore who will be a disaster for the Repubs, and I'm saying that as a voter for candidates, not parties.

surethatsit
surethatsit

@jjhlh1 Yours is the same narrative for Palin and Cain in 2011 -- "It's like the Carter years, Obama is toast!" How did that turn out? You freepers are truly out of touch. It ain't the late 70s anymore.

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