March Madness 2013: My Predictions in the Form of Prop Bets

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The play-in game appetizers are done, and Thursday morning the main course of 63 games involving 64 teams over the next two weeks begins. For the first time since I got into radio in 2007, I will be able to actually settle in and watch the games for the entire first two days with no radio responsibilities. (Shameless plug: If you are driving around and would like to listen to the games, they'll be broadcast all day long on 1560 Yahoo! Sports Radio.)

Being able to watch the games intently means that I can, in theory, have a few more friendly wagers out there to follow. (Note to aspiring talk-show hosts: Gambling, or even following your bracket, and doing a radio show simultaneously do not mix.)

So let's get on the record with my picks right here and do so while giving out a handful of prop bets.

(Odds courtesy of bovada.lv)

My selections are in bold and my comments are preceded by "SP:"

Which Conference will the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Champion come from?
Big Ten 2/1
Big East 2/1
ACC 11/2
SEC 6/1
Big 12 7/1
Mountain West 15/1
Atlantic 10 15/1
Pac 12 33/1

SP: Typically, picking the Big Ten this time of year is a recipe for putting your bookie's kid through private school. But this year, the Midwest coalition is the axis around which college basketball revolves, more than the Big East, and far more than the ACC. For the record, my champion is the INDIANA HOOSIERS. Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo give them multiple options late in games, and if Jordan Hulls and Christian Watford are knocking down shots from distance (big if, Hulls has been ice cold recently), the Hoosiers will be awfully tough to beat.

How Many #1 seeds will make the Final 4 of the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?

Over 1½ (+110)
Under 1½ (-150)

SP: As much as people want to say that this will be the craziest year we've seen in a long time (forgetting that here in Houston just two years ago we had a 3, 4, 8, and 11 seed in the Final Four), I still have two number ones in my Final Four: INDIANA and LOUISVILLE. In fact, I have them meeting in the finals.

What will the sum of the seeds be for Final 4 of the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Over 10½ (-140)
Under 10½ (EVEN)

SP: I have the aforementioned number one seeds going to Atlanta along with two seed Georgetown and five seed Wisconsin. (I pick one dark horse every year. I like Wisconsin's ability to shoot and defend to go with their experience.) So total is NINE.

What seed will the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Champion be?
#1 11/10
#2 3/1
#3 4/1
#4 8/1
#5 15/1
#6 25/1
#7 33/1
#8 20/1
#9 or higher 18/1

Which #1 ranked seed will be the first to be eliminated from the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Kansas 2/3
Gonzaga 2/1
Louisville 4/1
Indiana 5/1

SP: This one pains me because I love Gonzaga, but I love Wisconsin, too! And they would meet in the Sweet Sixteen! Dammit, I feel like the Bachelor...I want to give them both a rose! I actually have Kansas going out in the Sweet Sixteen, too, but I'll take the better value with the Zags at 2/1.

How Many #15 Seeds will advance past the round of 64 of the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Tournament?
1 or more +250 (5/2)
None -400 (1/4)

How Many #14 Seeds will advance past the round of 64 of the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Tournament?
1 or more -150 (2/3)
None +110 (11/10)

SP: VERY tempted to take Davidson (only a three point underdog) over Marquette, though.

How Many #13 Seeds will advance past the round of 64 of the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Tournament?
1 or more -180 (5/9)
None +140 (7/5)

SP: I, and numerous others, love South Dakota State (and Player of the Year candidate Nate Wolters) over a Michigan outfit that is inexperienced, overly reliant on the outside shot, and reeling a little bit at the end of the year. They were in the mix for a one seed about two weeks ago. They're a four. Gotta be a little bit of a letdown.

How Many #12 Seeds will advance past the round of 64 of the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Tournament?
1 or more -500 (1/5)
None +300 (3/1)

SP: Old adage is "a 12 beats a 5 every year." It's almost true. Actually, it's happened at least once in 22 of the last 24 years. This year, Oregon is the only one I have advancing.

MISCELLANEOUS PROPS

What will be the highest margin of victory during the Round of 64 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Tournament?
Over/Under 30½

SP: There was a piece I read online yesterday (sorry, I don't have the link) that talked about how spreads on March Madness games in the first round between Davids and Goliaths have shrunken in the last few years, to where there are only four games in the first round this year with a spread over 20 points, and three of those are between 20 and 22. Still, I like this bet. Odds are at least two of these will cover the number, and I think either Louisville or Gonzaga can cover huge in the round of 64.

What will be the highest point total scored by one team during the Round of 64 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Tournament?
Over/Under 95½

SP: Jitters, nerves, intensity, and just a general rash of bad basketball this season has me leaning under on this one.

Sweet 16 Chances

Louisville - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes -400 (1/4)
No +250 (5/2)

Gonzaga - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes -200 (1/2)
No +150 (3/2)

Kansas - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes -250 (2/5)
No +170 (17/10)

Indiana - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes -400 (1/4)
No +250 (5/2)

Duke - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes -250 (2/5)
No +170 (17/10)

SP: Got the Blue Devils losing to Doug McDermott and the Creighton Blue Jays!

Ohio State - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes -200 (1/2)
No +150 (3/2)

Georgetown - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes -180 (5/9)
No +140 (7/5)

Miami Florida - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes -180 (5/9)
No +140 (7/5)

Florida - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes -300 (1/3)
No +200 (2/1)

SP: Eleven seed Minnesota is by far the most highly thought of double digit seed on the board in Vegas. Let's ride them and see what they can do, cool?

New Mexico - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes EVEN (1/1)
No -140 (5/7)

SP: Belmont!!

Michigan State - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes -150 (2/3)
No +110 (11/10)

Marquette - Will they make the Sweet 16 in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship?
Yes +140 (7/5)
No -180 (5//9)

SP: Bucknell!

Enjoy the games, everybody!

Listen to Sean Pendergast on 1560 Yahoo! Sports Radio from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. weekdays and nationally on the Yahoo! Sports Radio network Saturdays from 10 a.m. to noon CST. Also, follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SeanCablinasian.


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