NBA Draft: Recent Stinkhole History to Enlighten Rocket Fans

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Same ol' same ol' for the Rockets.
Prior to Wednesday night's game between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, the 27th annual NBA Draft Lottery took place, or, as Rocket fans like to call it, "a tradition like no other." For those Rocket fans, their 0.5 percent chance of coming away with the top pick gave the draft lottery a decidedly similar feeling to the actual lottery: long-shot pipe dreams of the riches that would be showered upon the winner (in this case, Kentucky center Anthony Davis), baseless hope that we might actually win, only to have those hopes shattered almost immediately upon opening the first envelope (which contained the Rockets' logo).

To add insult to injury, the winners of the lottery were the New Orleans Hornets, which meant that the lottery festivities gave the basketball gods one more chance to remind the Rockets a) how fixed the league appears to be in favor of the Hornets (the aborted Gasol-to-Houston trade and now this) and b) how ridiculously difficult the Rockets' division is (Dallas, San Antonio, Memphis and now a Davis-led New Orleans).

So here the Rockets sit, in the spot of the draft that has essentially evolved into "their booth" in the diner that is the NBA -- the 14th pick in the draft, or as my co-host on 1560 The Game John Granato likes to call it, the "stinkhole." Basketball purgatory. Tallest midget. We've discussed this before.

It so happens that in addition to the 14th pick, the Rockets also have the 16th pick (which used to belong to the Knicks), which if history serves as a proper road map tells us that the Rockets will likely come away with two more possibly tradeable assets to pile on top of the rest of their tradeable assets. In other words, a franchise-changing player is likely not on his way, not via those picks, at least.

Or does it tell us that?

Now that we know the Rockets' draft fate, in the first step of preparing for the evening of June 28, let's look back at the history of the 14th and 16th picks going back to 2004 (the first season with 30 teams in the league). And for good measure, let's throw in the 15th pick, since that would in theory be a player available to the team picking 14th and 16th. And, in an effort to squeeze as much hope as possible out of a hopeless situation, let's also take note of some All-Star (or near/potential All-Star players) who were still on the board when picks 14 and 16 came up.

Let's do this:

2004 DRAFT
14th pick (Utah): Kris Humphries, F, Minnesota
15th pick (Bos): Al Jefferson, F, Prentiss H.S. (MS)
16th pick (Utah): Kirk Snyder, G, Nevada

Comment: What Humphries lacks in intelligence he makes up for in tenacity on the boards and a thirst for the reality television spotlight; he's evolved into a fringe double-double guy and solid rotation player. Jefferson is one of the most underrated low-post scorers in the league when he's not injured. Snyder quickly became a journeyman, and then a felon, and wound up playing in Russia.
Still on the board: Josh Smith (17th), Jameer Nelson (20th)

2005 DRAFT
14th pick (Min): Rashad McCants, G, North Carolina
15th pick (NJ): Antoine Wright, F/G, Texas A&M
16th pick (Tor): Joey Graham, F, Oklahoma State

Comment: McCants was a starter early in his career in Minnesota, but things eventually spun off the rails, and he was last seen trying to break into acting. Wright peaked as a part-time starter for the Mavericks in the 2009 playoffs, and is now playing in Venezuela. Graham completes the "out of the league" trifecta, now playing in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Still on the board: Danny Granger (17th), David Lee (30th), Monta Ellis (40th)

2006 DRAFT
14th pick (Utah): Ronnie Brewer, G, Arkansas
15th pick (NO): Cedric Simmons, F, NC State
16th pick (Chi): Rodney Carney, F, Memphis

Comment: Brewer had his best season in 2008-09 averaging double digits for Utah and is now a rotation player for the Bulls. Simmons currently plays in Spain after an uneventful NBA career. Ditto Carney, just fill in "China" for "Spain."
Still on the board: Rajon Rondo (21st), Kyle Lowry (24th)

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framed Asia poster
framed Asia poster

let me add that he may be a forward / hybrid interior player

Jim C
Jim C

a lot of college centers settle in at PF in the NBA.  Not uncommon at all.

framed Asia poster
framed Asia poster

I'd like to hear your case for Davis being a legit franchise player, versus simply being the presumably best player in this year's draft. Yes he's tall and can block shots / rebound, but he's currently a beanpole, who needs to bulk up a bit to hang in the NBA low post. Of course, he may be entering the league at the perfect time, with very few legit centers. But guys like Bynum, Ibaka and Howard could crush him.

Can see him being a semi-bust / average player, just as easily. Thoughts?

Sean Pendergast
Sean Pendergast

I'm 100% with you. I don't get the people who are anointing him a no brainer franchise changer. I think his lack of bulk and his clumsy (at best) offensive game will be big problems early on. He's got a lot of developing to do. Still the obvious first choice, but more a statement on the class than on Davis.

Jared
Jared

"obvious first choice, but more a statement on the class"

A statement that can be applied to no less than the last 7 years; an underrated reason why the NBA is, IMO, borderline unwatchable.

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