Colin Firth for Best Actor? Not So Fast.

​I realize the actual Academy Awards aren't set to be broadcast until Sunday night, when millions of people will watch -- for the first hour, at least -- as co-hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway lob Nerfball zingers at their fellow actors, make passively tasteless jokes about speech impediments and possibly engage in a pointless skit involving Banksy, Dicky Ecklund and a Mark Zuckerberg.

At various points throughout the ceremony's 3+ hour running time, they'll also announce the winners. And while you might think this year will be easier to predict than most, I'm here to tell you that ain't the case. There's a great deal of behind-the-scenes drama and intrigue that makes even apparent sure things not so certain as the last few hours before awards time tick away. Luckily, I'm here for you with a 100% guaranteed listing of what will win the big awards on Oscar night.*

And if these predictions are wrong, it's thanks to a combined effort to sabotage me conducted by the Freemasons, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Bruce Vilanch.

What follows are the picks conventional wisdom says are a lock for the six big awards, followed by my cogent and not-at-all hastily thrown together while drunk counterpoint. Place your bets accordingly.

Best Supporting Actor

The Favorite: So-called "smart" money says this is Christian Bale's in a walk: He plays a junkie, he lost a ton of weight (though not quite to Machinist levels of emaciation) and we're always impressed when a foreign person manages to sound convincingly American, much less Bostonian.

The Winner: The Town's Jeremy Renner, which the Academy will consider just rewards for putting up with Ben Affleck as both director and co-star.

Best Supporting Actress

The Favorite: At first it looked like Melissa Leo had this wrapped up (and how crappy does Mark Wahlberg feel as the only principal in The Fighter -- the movie he struggled for years to get made -- not to be nominated?), but True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld is coming up on the outside. Or so you'd think. Leo sandbagged her chances with that horribly self-conscious ad campaign, and Steinfeld is too young: for voters remember the horrible fate of ten-year old winner Tatum O'Neal (marrying John McEnroe).

The Winner: That'll be Jacki Weaver. Believe me, if you saw Animal Kingdom, you wouldn't dare vote against her.