Okay, so I don't actually understand betting odds. (Like, if it's five to one are those bad odds or good odds? Or what?)

Regardless, I can tell you I've been making my own little guesstimates on who is going to survive VH1's "Sober House" (which is the more measured, more intimate "Celebrity Rehab" - this time with Andy Dick!).

Watching "Sober House" is like watching "Intervention" and not feeling bad about laughing. In between the laughing, I've created my own predictions on who comes out clean on the other end.

Steven Adler: Actually already dead, but they have propped him up and planted heroin on him to make the first episode more interesting. Of all the contestants, he is the one most likely to be offered his own series after this is all over.

Seth "Shifty" Binzer: Who can tell me who this guy is? Anyway, previews for the next episode hint at a possible relapse, although he did break curfew and come home clean in the second episode, so I could be wrong. The nickname "Shifty" doesn't seem to suggest being successful at sobriety, however.

Andy Dick: Will get sober and then get fucked up again as soon as his career needs a boost.

Mary Carey: I kinda like her and her ginormous breasts. Could potentially succeed, but the party girl in her is not totally asleep yet, I fear. Come on, Mary!

Rodney King: I think celebrity is a weird word to use to describe someone who got beaten up by the police, but Rodney has the best chance. He chose not to party during the episode where everyone went out, and he seems to have the most supportive family. Go Rodney, go!

Nikki McKibbin: If I'd come in third after Justin Guarini, I'd drink heavily, too. Give the gal a break.

Amber Smith: Already relapsed at a party, so she's a no go. Please, God, don't let her get drunk and hook up with Andy Dick.

So it seems like Mary and Rodney are neck and neck for first place. Although Mary's breasts could come in handy for the photo finish. We'll just have to watch and wait.